2025/12/23 by Filippo Santoliquido, Santoliquido, Filippo, Jacopo Tissino +7
Computer Science · Physics and Astronomy · #FOS: Physical sciences #Gamma-ray bursts and supernovae #Gaussian Processes and Bayesian Inference #General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology (gr-qc) #High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena (astro-ph.HE) #Pulsars and Gravitational Waves Research
paper · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2512.20699
openalex publication_date 2025/12/23 · openalex created_date 2025/12/26 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
The coming decade will be crucial for determining the final design and configuration of a global network of next-generation (XG) gravitational-wave detectors, including the Einstein Telescope (ET) and Cosmic Explorer (CE). In this study, and for the first time, we assessed the performance of various network configurations using neural posterior estimation (NPE) implemented in Dingo-IS-a method based on normalizing flows and importance sampling that enables fast and accurate inference. We focused on a specific science case involving short-duration, massive and high-redshift binary black hole mergers with detector-frame chirp masses > 100~M_\odot. These systems encompass early-Universe stellar and primordial black holes, as well as intermediate-mass black hole binaries, for which XG observatories are expected to deliver major discoveries. Validation against standard Bayesian inference demonstrates that NPE robustly reproduces complex and disconnected posterior structures across all network configurations. For a network of two misaligned L-shaped ET detectors (2L MisA), the posterior distributions on luminosity distance can become multimodal and degenerate with the sky position, leading to less precise distance estimates compared to the triangular ET configuration. However, the number of sky-location multimodalities is substantially lower than the eight expected with the triangular ET, resulting in improved sky and volume localization. Adding CE to the network further reduces sky-position degeneracies, and the better performance of the 2L MisA configuration over the triangle remains evident.