2012/05/03 by Dmitry Kobak, Sergey Shpilkin, Kobak, Dmitry +3
Mathematics · Physics and Astronomy · #Applications (stat.AP) #Benford’s Law and Fraud Detection #FOS: Computer and information sciences #FOS: Physical sciences #Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) #Statistical Mechanics and Entropy
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1205.0741
openalex publication_date 2012/05/03 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
Here we perform a statistical analysis of the official data from recent\nRussian parliamentary and presidential elections (held on December 4th, 2011\nand March 4th, 2012, respectively). A number of anomalies are identified that\npersistently skew the results in favour of the pro-government party, United\nRussia (UR), and its leader Vladimir Putin. The main irregularities are: (i)\nremarkably high correlation between turnout and voting results; (ii) a large\nnumber of polling stations where the UR/Putin results are given by a round\nnumber of percent; (iii) constituencies showing improbably low or (iv)\nanomalously high dispersion of results across polling stations; (v) substantial\ndifference between results at paper-based and electronic polling stations.\nThese anomalies, albeit less prominent in the presidential elections, hardly\nconform to the assumptions of fair and free voting. The approaches proposed\nhere can be readily extended to quantify fingerprints of electoral fraud in any\nother problematic elections.\n