2024/01/06 by Vincent Berthet, Berthet, Vincent
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #FOS: Physical sciences #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) #Sports Analytics and Performance
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2401.03280
openalex publication_date 2024/01/06 · openalex created_date 2024/01/13 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
Boxing and MMA have a longstanding issue with judging, as evidenced by frequent controversial decisions. Like boxing, MMA bouts are scored following the 10-Point Must System, by which judges score each round individually. In the present study, we compare the performance of two methods of round scores aggregation: the standard method (aggregation over rounds and then over judges) and an alternative method known as consensus scoring (aggregation over judges and then over rounds). For that purpose, we conducted a statistical analysis of 4,129 MMA bouts that went to decision between 2003 and 2023. Our findings indicate that standard and consensus scoring yield the same result in 97.53% of the bouts. Noteworthy, this percentage may be underestimated, as judges may not always score each round individually; instead, they may balance their scores across rounds. Regarding the bouts in which the two methods disagree, the outcome of consensus scoring aligns more with the opinion of the fans (48.96%) than that of standard scoring (43.75%). This results from the fact that consensus scoring can counteract the impact of an incorrect score (especially a 10-8 score) given by a judge in a specific round. From a cost-benefit perspective, we argue that state commissions should consider consensus scoring in MMA as an alternative to standard scoring as it can avoid controversial decisions while it does not imply a major change in the judging system.