Further Statistical Study of NISQ Experiments

2025/12/11 by Gil Kalai, Kalai, Gil, Tomer Shoham +3
Physics and Astronomy · Mathematics · Computer Science · #Quantum Mechanics and Applications #Benford’s Law and Fraud Detection #Quantum Computing Algorithms and Architecture

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2512.10722

Abstract

We revisit and extend some topics that we studied in our previous works (Rinott, Kalai and Shoham 2022; Kalai, Rinott and Shoham, 2023,2024) regarding the Google 2019 "quantum supremacy" experiment. We extend our analysis of the prediction based on Google's digital error model (Formula (77)), based on more detailed data provided by Google. We also provide some preliminary analysis for a few other NISQ experiments.

Citations

• Demonstrating an unconditional separation between quantum and classical information resources
• Robust quantum computational advantage with programmable 3050-photon Gaussian boson sampling
• Architectural mechanisms of a universal fault-tolerant quantum computer
• Interferometric single-shot parity measurement in InAs–Al hybrid devices
• Establishing a New Benchmark in Quantum Computational Advantage with 105-qubit Zuchongzhi 3.0 Processor
• Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold
• Beyond-classical computation in quantum simulation
• Demonstration of Algorithmic Quantum Speedup for an Abelian Hidden Subgroup Problem
• Effect of Nonunital Noise on Random-Circuit Sampling
• Questions and Concerns About Google's Quantum Supremacy Claim
• Phase transitions in random circuit sampling
• Statistical Aspects of the Quantum Supremacy Demonstration
• The Argument against Quantum Computers, the Quantum Laws of Nature, and Google's Supremacy Claims

Related

• Questions and Concerns About Google's Quantum Supremacy Claim
• Google's Quantum Supremacy Claim: Data, Documentation, and Discussion
• Statistical Aspects of the Quantum Supremacy Demonstration
• What Have Google's Random Quantum Circuit Simulation Experiments Demonstrated about Quantum Supremacy?
• Where are we heading with NISQ?