2019/11/30 by Krzysztof Burdzy, Soumik Pal, Burdzy, Krzysztof +1
Mathematics · Physics and Astronomy · #60E15 #FOS: Mathematics #Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence #Probability (math.PR) #math.PR #msc:60E15
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1912.00126
arxiv created 2019/11/30 · openalex publication_date 2019/11/30 · arxiv updated 2019/12/03 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
We prove the sharp bound for the probability that two experts who have access to different information, represented by different σ-fields, will give radically different estimates of the probability of an event. This is relevant when one combines predictions from various experts in a common probability space to obtain an aggregated forecast. Our proof is constructive in the sense that, not only the sharp bounds are proved, but also the optimizer is constructed via an explicit algorithm.