2021/09/24 by Dominik Kreiß, Kreiss, Dominik, Thomas Augustin +1
Computer Science · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Mathematics · Physics and Astronomy · #Applications (stat.AP) #Benford’s Law and Fraud Detection #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Game Theory and Voting Systems #Methodology (stat.ME) #Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence #Statistical Methods and Inference #Statistical and Computational Modeling
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2109.12069
openalex publication_date 2021/09/24 · openalex created_date 2022/07/25 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
Within this paper we develop and apply new methodology adequately including\nundecided voters for the 2021 German federal election. Due to a cooperation\nwith the polling institute Civey, we are in the fortunate position to obtain\ndata in which undecided voters can state all the options they are still\npondering between. In contrast to conventional polls, forcing the undecided to\neither state a single party or to drop out, this design allows the undecided to\nprovide their current position in an accurate and precise way. The resulting\nset-valued information can be used to examine structural properties of groups\nundecided between specific parties as well as to improve election forecasting.\nFor forecasting, this partial information provides valuable additional\nknowledge, and the uncertainty induced by the participants' ambiguity can be\nconveyed within interval-valued results. Turning to coalitions of parties,\nwhich is in the core of the current public discussion in Germany, some of this\nuncertainty can be dissolved as the undecided provide precise information on\ncorresponding coalitions. We show structural differences between the decided\nand undecided with discrete choice models as well as elaborate the discrepancy\nbetween the conventional approach and our new ones including the undecided. Our\ncautious analysis further demonstrates that in most cases the undecideds'\neventual decisions are pivotal which coalitions could hold a majority of seats.\nOverall, accounting for the populations' ambiguity leads to more credible\nresults and paints a more holistic picture of the political landscape, pathing\nthe way for a possible paradigmatic shift concerning the adequate inclusion of\nundecided voters in pre-election polls.\n