2016/05/27 by W. E. Fitzgibbon, Fitzgibbon, W., Jeffrey R. Morgan +3 · 1 citation
Medicine · Mathematics · #Mosquito-borne diseases and control #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #Zoonotic diseases and public health
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1605.08726
Background: A deterministic model is developed for the spatial spread of an epidemic disease in a geographical setting. The disease is borne by vectors to susceptible hosts through criss-cross dynamics. The model is focused on an epidemic outbreak that initiates from a small number of cases in a small sub-region of the geographical setting. Methods: Partial differential equations are formulated to describe the interaction of the model compartments. Results: The partial differential equations of the model are analyzed and proven to be well-posed. The epidemic outcomes of the model are correlated to the spatially dependent parameters and initial conditions of the model. Conclusions: A version of the model is applied to the 2015-2016 Zika outbreak in the Rio de Janeiro Municipality in Brazil.