Links between population growth, age demographics, and socio-economic performance among countries
2025/08/23 by Corey J. A. Bradshaw, Shana M. McDermott, Bradshaw, Corey J. A. +2 · 11 voices · 1 citation
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #econ.GN #msc:91B82 #q-fin.EC
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2508.16872
main document: 38 pages, 1 table, 8 figures; supplementary information: Appendices I-XI, Fig. S1-S63, Table S1-S4
arxiv created 2026/07/30 · arxiv updated 2026/07/31
Abstract
Concerns about declining or ageing populations often centre on the concern that fewer people will translate to a weaker economy and lower living standards. In reality, long-term prosperity depends more on how societies invest in education, skills, and technology than on population size per se. We examine national data at the global scale to test whether slower population growth or ageing populations are associated with worse economic or social outcomes, using hybrid machine-learning approaches. Using nine different indices of socio-economic performance, we find no evidence that they are. In fact, the data show that countries with low or negative population growth perform better on average for all indicators. Even within-country time series show that most older and slower-growing populations fare better on average. These findings challenge common assumptions and highlight the need to move beyond fear-based and politically motivated narratives toward a more informed understanding of what truly supports thriving, sustainable societies.
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Discussions
- No evidence ageing/declining populations compromise socio-economic performance [hn, 82 points, 101 comments]
- Migration is 👍 But a stagnant or shrinking and older population is also 👍 - despite what most politicians and other pundits tell us. It might in fact fare better on many criteria, as explained in th [bsky, 4 points, 0 comments]
- I was tired of all the pro-natalist bullshit (even from the ABC), so we wrote a paper (preprint still) about the relationship between population growth, ageing, and the #economy No evidence ageing or [bsky, 2 points, 0 comments]
- "We find that countries with low or negative population growth, on average, perform better across nine standard markers including personal wealth, individual freedom, industrial output, intellectual p [bsky, 1 points, 0 comments]
- Message to the tech bros bemoaning falling populations: ageing or declining populations are not socio-economically damaging arxiv.org/abs/2508.16872 [bsky, 1 points, 0 comments]
- No evidence ageing/declining populations compromise socio-economic performance https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.16872 [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- Slovenija se stara. GOOD! Demografska kriza bla bla..NOT! [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- No evidence ageing/declining populations compromise socio-economic performance https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.16872 (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45028439) [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- No evidence ageing/declining populations compromise socio-economic performance https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.16872 (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45028439) [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- No evidence ageing/declining populations compromise socio-economic performance [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- No evidence ageing/declining populations compromise socio-economic performance #HackerNews https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.16872 [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
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