2020/10/21 by Giorgio Fagiolo, Fagiolo, Giorgio
Mathematics · Physics and Astronomy · Social Sciences · #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #Complex Network Analysis Techniques #Evolutionary Game Theory and Cooperation #FOS: Biological sciences #FOS: Physical sciences #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2010.11212
openalex publication_date 2020/10/21 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
In this paper, I study epidemic diffusion in a generalized spatial SEIRD model, where individuals are initially connected in a social or geographical network. As the virus spreads in the network, the structure of interactions between people may endogenously change over time, due to quarantining measures and/or spatial-distancing policies. I explore via simulations the dynamic properties of the co-evolutionary process dynamically linking disease diffusion and network properties. Results suggest that, in order to predict how epidemic phenomena evolve in networked populations, it is not enough to focus on the properties of initial interaction structures. Indeed, the co-evolution of network structures and compartment shares strongly shape the process of epidemic diffusion, especially in terms of its speed. Furthermore, I show that the timing and features of spatial-distancing policies may dramatically influence their effectiveness.