Early warning skill, extrapolation and tipping for accelerating cascades

2025/05/16 by Peter Ashwin, Ashwin, Peter, Robbin Bastiaansen +5 · 4 citations
Neuroscience · #37M10 82C27 #Chaotic Dynamics (nlin.CD) #Cognitive Science and Education Research #Dynamical Systems (math.DS) #FOS: Mathematics #FOS: Physical sciences

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2506.01981

openalex publication_date 2025/05/16 · openalex created_date 2025/10/14 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

We investigate how nonlinear behaviour (both of forcing in time and of the system itself) can affect the skill of early warning signals to predict tipping in (directionally) coupled bistable systems when using measures based on critical slowing down due to the breakdown of extrapolation. We quantify the skill of early warnings with a time horizon using a receiver-operator methodology for ensembles where noise realisations and parameters are varied to explore the role of extrapolation and how it can break down. We highlight cases where this can occur in an accelerating cascade of tipping elements, where very slow forcing of a slowly evolving ``upstream'' system forces a more rapidly evolving ``downstream'' system. If the upstream system crosses a tipping point, this can shorten the timescale of valid extrapolation. In particular, ``downstream-within-upstream'' tipping will typically have warnings only on a timescale comparable to the duration of the upstream tipping process, rather than the timescale of the original forcing.

Citations

• Ambiguity of early warning signals for climate tipping points
• Uncertainties too large to predict tipping times of major Earth system components from historical data
• Uncertainties too large to predict tipping times of major Earth system components from historical data
• Dynamic tipping and cyclic folds, in a one-dimensional non-smooth dynamical system linked to climate models
• Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
• Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
• Uncertainties in critical slowing down indicators of observation-based fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation
• Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points
• Rate-Induced Tipping: Thresholds, Edge States and Connecting Orbits
• Inverse-square law between time and amplitude for crossing tipping\n thresholds
• Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system
• An introduction to ROC analysis

Cited by

• On early-warning of full versus partial Atlantic overturning circulation collapse
• Classifying seizure generation mechanisms: A critical transitions framework
• Early Warning Signals in Ecological Time-Series
• The role of coupling and timescales for interacting tipping elements

Related

• Early warnings are too late when parameters change rapidly
• The role of coupling and timescales for interacting tipping elements
• Early-warning indicators in the dynamic regime
• Deep learning for predicting rate-induced tipping
• Deep Learning for predicting rate-induced tipping