2025/01/30 by Stephen P. Schmidt, Ryan J. MacDonald, Schmidt, Stephen P. +34 · 8 voices · 14 citations
Engineering · Earth and Planetary Sciences · #Calibration and Measurement Techniques #Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2501.18477
Sub-Neptunes are the most common type of planet in our galaxy. Interior structure models suggest that the coldest sub-Neptunes could host liquid water oceans underneath their hydrogen envelopes -- sometimes called ``hycean'' planets. JWST transmission spectra of the ∼ 250 K sub-Neptune K2-18 b were recently used to report detections of CH4 and CO2, alongside weaker evidence of (CH3)2S (dimethyl sulfide, or DMS). Atmospheric CO2 was interpreted as evidence for a liquid water ocean, while DMS was highlighted as a potential biomarker. However, these notable claims were derived using a single data reduction and retrieval modeling framework, which did not allow for standard robustness tests. Here we present a comprehensive reanalysis of K2-18 b's JWST NIRISS SOSS and NIRSpec G395H transmission spectra, including the first analysis of the second-order NIRISS SOSS data. We incorporate multiple well-tested data reduction pipelines and retrieval codes, spanning 60 different data treatments and over 250 atmospheric retrievals. We confirm the detection of CH4 (≈ 4σ), with a volume mixing ratio range -2.14 ≤ log10 CH4 ≤ -0.53, but we find no statistically significant or reliable evidence for CO2 or DMS. Finally, we assess the retrieved atmospheric composition using photochemical-climate and interior models, demonstrating that our revised composition of K2-18 b can be explained by an oxygen-poor mini-Neptune without requiring a liquid water surface or life.