Understanding the food component of inflation

2022/12/19 by Emanuel Kohlscheen, Kohlscheen, Emanuel
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #FOS: Economics and business #General Economics (econ.GN) #Market Dynamics and Volatility #Monetary Policy and Economic Impact

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2212.09380

openalex publication_date 2022/12/19 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

This article presents evidence based on a panel of 35 countries over the past 30 years that the Phillips curve relation holds for food inflation. That is, broader economic overheating does push up the food component of the CPI in a systematic way. Further, general inflation expectations from professional forecasters clearly impact food price inflation. The analysis also quantifies the extent to which higher food production and imports, or lower food exports, reduce food inflation. Importantly, the link between domestic and global food prices is typically weak, with passthroughs within a year ranging from 0.07 to 0.16, after exchange rate variations are taken into account.

Related

• Food Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa
• Understanding food inflation in India: A Machine Learning approach
• Changes in UK price disparities between healthy and less healthy foods over 10 years: An updated analysis with insights in the context of inflationary increases in the cost-of-living from 2021
• What Drives Inflation and How: Evidence from Additive Mixed Models\n Selected by cAIC
• The Role of Carbon Pricing in Food Inflation: Evidence from Canadian Provinces