Low latency carbon budget analysis reveals a large decline of the land carbon sink in 2023
2024/07/17 by Piyu Ke, Ke, Piyu, Philippe Ciais +32 · 28 voices · 9 citations
Environmental Science · #Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2407.12447
Abstract
In 2023, the CO2 growth rate was 3.37 +/- 0.11 ppm at Mauna Loa, 86% above the previous year, and hitting a record high since observations began in 1958, while global fossil fuel CO2 emissions only increased by 0.6 +/- 0.5%. This implies an unprecedented weakening of land and ocean sinks, and raises the question of where and why this reduction happened. Here we show a global net land CO2 sink of 0.44 +/- 0.21 GtC yr-1, the weakest since 2003. We used dynamic global vegetation models, satellites fire emissions, an atmospheric inversion based on OCO-2 measurements, and emulators of ocean biogeochemical and data driven models to deliver a fast-track carbon budget in 2023. Those models ensured consistency with previous carbon budgets. Regional flux anomalies from 2015-2022 are consistent between top-down and bottom-up approaches, with the largest abnormal carbon loss in the Amazon during the drought in the second half of 2023 (0.31 +/- 0.19 GtC yr-1), extreme fire emissions of 0.58 +/- 0.10 GtC yr-1 in Canada and a loss in South-East Asia (0.13 +/- 0.12 GtC yr-1). Since 2015, land CO2 uptake north of 20 degree N declined by half to 1.13 +/- 0.24 GtC yr-1 in 2023. Meanwhile, the tropics recovered from the 2015-16 El Nino carbon loss, gained carbon during the La Nina years (2020-2023), then switched to a carbon loss during the 2023 El Nino (0.56 +/- 0.23 GtC yr-1). The ocean sink was stronger than normal in the equatorial eastern Pacific due to reduced upwelling from La Nina's retreat in early 2023 and the development of El Nino later. Land regions exposed to extreme heat in 2023 contributed a gross carbon loss of 1.73 GtC yr-1, indicating that record warming in 2023 had a strong negative impact on the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to mitigate climate change.
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Discussions
- On the day that Donald Trump blew kisses to Hulk Hogan at the RNC, climate scientists reported that the earth's plants and soils absorbed no CO2 in 2023. Yes, you read that right. No Co2 was absorbed [bsky, 134 points, 8 comments]
- Peaceful climate activists get 4 & 5 years jail as the climate news keep getting worse: "The global net land CO2 sink in 2023 was the weakest since 2003. (…) Record warming had a strong negative imp [bsky, 27 points, 2 comments]
- arxiv.org/abs/2407.12447 [bsky, 23 points, 0 comments]
- cc science friends @katharinehayhoe.com @glenpeters.bsky.social @waiterich.bsky.social I think this is the paper they're referencing arxiv.org/abs/2407.12447 [bsky, 13 points, 1 comments]
- Plants and soils absorbed almost no CO2 last year, according to: arxiv.org/abs/2407.12447. Planetary boundaries analysts have been warning for decades that land and oceans will dramatically decrease t [bsky, 7 points, 0 comments]
- Low latency carbon budget analysis reveals decline of the land carbon sink [hn, 4 points, 0 comments]
- Land regions exposed to extreme heat in 2023 contributed a gross carbon loss of 1.73 GtC/yr, indicating that record warming in 2023 had a strong negative impact on the capacity of terrestrial ecosys [bsky, 4 points, 0 comments]
- Terrestrial carbon sink collapsed in 2023 Only of you do not know all the model errors which sum now up one can think that models work-will be much worse! "Low latency carbon budget analysis reveals [bsky, 3 points, 1 comments]
- I think this is the study she cites. Of not, can you post that link? arxiv.org/abs/2407.12447 [bsky, 3 points, 0 comments]
- noticed this report about carbon sinks potentially collapsing, but was originally linked to it by The Guardian, which i very much do not trust. followers who know things about climate - how concerned [bsky, 3 points, 1 comments]
- 🚨🚨 Unfucking Believable 🚨🚨 New research found that plants and soils absorbed almost no CO2 in 2023. Planet Earth faces a Collapse of the Land Carbon sink! CO2 will skyrocket 🚀🚀🫣 arxiv.org [bsky, 3 points, 0 comments]
- This is profoundly depressing. but we have to keep working to prevent worse outcomes; and recently reported research on the decline in carbon sinks in 2023 adds to gloom arxiv.org/pdf/2407.12447 Clima [bsky, 2 points, 0 comments]
- "Јаглероден *мијалник" е сето она (растенија, океани, почва) што од атмосферата апсорбира повеќе отколку што ослободува, CO2. - "Мијалникот" е мерлив и за 2023-та (виа gcarbonproject и gpbalsamo) изме [bsky, 1 points, 1 comments]
- But, yes, let's go ahead with training generative AI and mining crypto, and ignore possibilities around congestion pricing and other collective solutions. Cool cool. arxiv.org/abs/2407.12447 [bsky, 1 points, 0 comments]
- #CO222.11 🚨 climate music RAP = climate collapse = CO2 land sink 0.44 GtC = down from 3.1GtC 2021. fossil fuel 10 GtC = 0.6% above 2022. CO2 3.37 ppm = 86% above 2022. 0.58 GtC Canada fire 0.56 GtC [bsky, 1 points, 0 comments]
- Good morning. An international team of scientists recently released their preliminary findings that terrestrial carbon sinks (land, trees) absorbed almost no CO2 in 2023. I don’t have the words for [bsky, 1 points, 0 comments]
- arxiv.org/abs/2407.12447 Land carbon sink collapsing. [bsky, 1 points, 0 comments]
- Low latency carbon budget analysis reveals a large decline of the land carbon sink in 2023 arxiv.org/abs/2407.12447 [bsky, 1 points, 0 comments]
- #ClimateDisruption #Feedbacks The attenuating feedbacks most projections count on to keep us below 1.5C are themselves already being attenuated. arxiv.org/abs/2407.12447 See 🧵 x.com/ciais_philip.. [bsky, 1 points, 1 comments]
- Low carbon in soil arxiv.org/pdf/2407.12447 [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- 'In the coming years if this decline continues, we may see a rapid acceleration of CO2 and global warming which was unforeseen in future climate models projections' arxiv.org/abs/2407.12447 #ClimateE [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- A low-latency analysis of the carbon budget and found that plants and soils absorbed almost no CO2 last year. Extremely ALARMING. arxiv.org/abs/2407.12447 [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- As far as I know, some of the underlying research here is this paper: arxiv.org/pdf/2407.12447 But I'd like to know more about the modelling aspect, if anyone can share links? [bsky, 0 points, 1 comments]
- #CO222.13 🚨 climate music RAP = climate collapse = CO2 land sink 0.44 GtC = down from 3.1GtC 2021. fossil fuel 10 GtC = 0.6% above 2022. CO2 3.37 ppm = 86% above 2022. 0.58 GtC Canada fire 0.56 GtC [bsky, 0 points, 1 comments]
- A recent paper have analyzed the carbon budget and found that plants and soils absorbed almost no CO2 last year. #Climatechange #Carbonsinks arxiv.org/abs/2407.12447 [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- This study provides confirmation that there are no more terrestrial carbon sinks. In a previous post I presented a study showing that the oceans are now net carbon emitters. Our atmosphere is on its w [bsky, 0 points, 1 comments]
- 근데 이 논문 왜 result랑 discussion없이 바로 reference랑 supplementary 로 들어가지 기후학 논문은 원래 이런가? arxiv.org/pdf/2407.12447 [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- I've been following climate news pretty closely since the early 90's, and though it very often gives me agita, on balance I've continued to have faith that renewables can get us through. This is the f [bsky, 0 points, 1 comments]
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