GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models
2023/03/17 by Tyna Eloundou, Sam Manning, Eloundou, Tyna +5 · 18 voices · 24 citations
#econ.GN #cs.AI #cs.CY
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2303.10130
Abstract
We investigate the potential implications of large language models (LLMs), such as Generative Pre-trained Transformers (GPTs), on the U.S. labor market, focusing on the increased capabilities arising from LLM-powered software compared to LLMs on their own. Using a new rubric, we assess occupations based on their alignment with LLM capabilities, integrating both human expertise and GPT-4 classifications. Our findings reveal that around 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs, while approximately 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted. We do not make predictions about the development or adoption timeline of such LLMs. The projected effects span all wage levels, with higher-income jobs potentially facing greater exposure to LLM capabilities and LLM-powered software. Significantly, these impacts are not restricted to industries with higher recent productivity growth. Our analysis suggests that, with access to an LLM, about 15% of all worker tasks in the US could be completed significantly faster at the same level of quality. When incorporating software and tooling built on top of LLMs, this share increases to between 47 and 56% of all tasks. This finding implies that LLM-powered software will have a substantial effect on scaling the economic impacts of the underlying models. We conclude that LLMs such as GPTs exhibit traits of general-purpose technologies, indicating that they could have considerable economic, social, and policy implications.
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Discussions
- GPTs Are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs [hn, 190 points, 230 comments]
- I would also like to remind folks that OpenAI wrote a paper in which they prompted GPT-4 on which jobs they thought would be most exposed to automation. They validated it by comparing it to responses [bsky, 126 points, 6 comments]
- The influence of AI on professions. GPTs is a play on words. GPT means 'Generative Pre-trained Transformers' or 'General-Purpose Technologies', i.e. cross-sectional technologies. "GPTs are GPTs: An E [bsky, 3 points, 0 comments]
- An early look at the labor market impact potential of LLMs (2023) [hn, 2 points, 0 comments]
- já tem paper bom sobre isso https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.10130.pdf as profissões NÃO expostas a impactos de LLM como o chatgpt seriam essas aqui @lapapaespop.bsky.social [bsky, 2 points, 0 comments]
- A new LLM is like a new source of steel: Fascinating scientific discovery. But nothing that really affects anyone not using raw materials. arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130 predicts 80% of jobs will have 10% [bsky, 2 points, 0 comments]
- This paper is a little old 😅 but its methodology is still relevant for assessing AI's labor market impact. A must-read for understanding how LLMs intersect with the workforce. arxiv.org/pdf/2303.1013 [bsky, 1 points, 0 comments]
- Sorry I was not clear. This paper is by Anthropic but the calculation of potential job market use values (blue area) comes from this paper published by open AI, as cited in the appendix. arxiv.org/pdf [bsky, 1 points, 1 comments]
- I believe they used the ideas from this paper arxiv.org/pdf/2303.10130 [bsky, 1 points, 0 comments]
- Ready to see how GPTs are shaking up the labor market? Check out this paper for an early peek at the potential of large language models. Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130 #LLM #ChatGPT #Labor [bsky, 1 points, 0 comments]
- 例えば AI による翻訳はまともに使えるようになってきたが、まだ翻訳者が求めるレベルではなく、翻訳の手直しが必要で人間の介在が残る。しかし需給の総量は変わらないので、初期的な翻訳が自動化され、翻訳者は膨大に残る最後の手直しに追われ、結果的に賃金が押し下げられる構造。翻訳は GPTs are GPTs (arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130) で言うところの exposed な仕事であり [bsky, 0 points, 1 comments]
- https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.10130.pdf?fbclid=PAAabftYt1RJZOilZWZSZU1obm6rBe6FVsoNv8V2v615H119RTYuNt3wF_LLk #generativeAI #GPT #AI #FutureofWork [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- Interesting paper looking into the effect of LLMs on the US labor market 15% of all worker tasks in the US could be completed significantly faster at the same level of quality. 80% could see 10% of [bsky, 0 points, 1 comments]
- Daniel has made a career studying your first statement [bsky, 0 points, 1 comments]
- According to this research paper by @OpenAI () the following jobs have the least risk of being affected or replaced by LLMs like GPT-4. What are you going to be doing in 5 years time? I’m considerin [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- GPTs Are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- #GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models #LLM #GenAI #TechPakistan #AI #ML arxiv.org/pdf/2303.10130 [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- “findings indicate that approximately 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of GPTs, while around 19% of workers may see at least 50% of th [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
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