2019/08/01 by Martin Feldkircher, Feldkircher, Martin, Elizaveta Lukmanova +3
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #Italy: Economic History and Contemporary Issues #Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
paper · doi:10.57938/2d156d72-97b0-49c6-b9c4-88b3a0c5eac8
openalex publication_date 2019/08/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/01
In this paper, we examine international linkages in inflation and short-term interest rates using a global sample of OECD and emerging economies. Using a Bayesian global vector autoregression (GVAR) model, we show that for short-term interest rates both movements in inflation and output play an important role. In advanced countries, however, international factors such as foreign interest rates appear as an important driver of local interest rates. For inflation, we also find evidence for the importance of global factors, such as price developments in other countries, oil prices and the exchange rate. Again, this impact of global factors appears predominately in advanced countries.