2001/02/02 by K. F. Tiampo, Kristy F. Tiampo, John B. Rundle +9
Computer Science · Earth and Planetary Sciences · Physics and Astronomy · #Earthquake Detection and Analysis #FOS: Physical sciences #Seismology and Earthquake Studies #Statistical Mechanics (cond-mat.stat-mech) #cond-mat.stat-mech #earthquake and tectonic studies
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.cond-mat/0102032
email: [email protected]
arxiv created 2001/02/02 · openalex publication_date 2001/02/02 · arxiv updated 2009/11/30 · openalex created_date 2016/06/24 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
We analyze the space-time patterns of earthquake occurrence in southern California using a new method that treats earthquakes as a phase dynamical system. The system state vector is used to obtain a probability measure for current and future earthquake occurrence. Thousands of statistical tests indicate the method has considerable forecast skill. We emphasize that the method is not a model, and there are no unconstrained or free parameters to be determined by fits to training data sets.