Calibration of Derivative Pricing Models: a Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Perspective

2022/03/14 by Nelson Vadori, Vadori, Nelson
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Decision Sciences · #Stochastic processes and financial applications #Stock Market Forecasting Methods #Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2203.06865

Abstract

One of the most fundamental questions in quantitative finance is the existence of continuous-time diffusion models that fit market prices of a given set of options. Traditionally, one employs a mix of intuition, theoretical and empirical analysis to find models that achieve exact or approximate fits. Our contribution is to show how a suitable game theoretical formulation of this problem can help solve this question by leveraging existing developments in modern deep multi-agent reinforcement learning to search in the space of stochastic processes. Our experiments show that we are able to learn local volatility, as well as path-dependence required in the volatility process to minimize the price of a Bermudan option. Our algorithm can be seen as a particle method à la Guyon et Henry-Labordere where particles, instead of being designed to ensure σ_loc(t,S_t)² = 𝔼[σ_t²|S_t], are learning RL-driven agents cooperating towards more general calibration targets.

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