2017/08/29 by Andrew MacFie, MacFie, Andrew · 1 voice
Computer Science · #Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference #Cryptography and Data Security #Logic, Reasoning, and Knowledge #cs.AI #msc:00A30
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1708.09032
arxiv published 2017/08/29 · arxiv created 2019/12/16 · arxiv updated 2019/12/17
We consider the problem of rational uncertainty about unproven mathematical statements, remarked on by Gödel and others. Using Bayesian-inspired arguments we build a normative model of fair bets under deductive uncertainty which draws from both probability and the theory of algorithms. We comment on connections to Zeilberger's notion of "semi-rigorous proofs", particularly that inherent subjectivity would be present. We also discuss a financial view with models of arbitrage where traders have limited computational resources.