2010/11/15 by Anthony B. Morton, Morton, Anthony B.
Mathematics · #60A05 #60C05 #62A01 #91A20 #91A35 #91A90 #91E10 #97A20 #97A80 (Secondary) #97K50 (Primary) #Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI) #Benford’s Law and Fraud Detection #FOS: Computer and information sciences #FOS: Mathematics #History and Overview (math.HO) #Probability (math.PR) #Probability and Statistical Research #Statistics Education and Methodologies #Statistics Theory (math.ST)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1011.3400
openalex publication_date 2010/11/15 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
The Monty Hall problem is the TV game scenario where you, the contestant, are presented with three doors, with a car hidden behind one and goats hidden behind the other two. After you select a door, the host (Monty Hall) opens a second door to reveal a goat. You are then invited to stay with your original choice of door, or to switch to the remaining unopened door, and claim whatever you find behind it. Assuming your objective is to win the car, is your best strategy to stay or switch, or does it not matter? Jason Rosenhouse has provided the definitive analysis of this game, along with several intriguing variations, and discusses some of its psychological and philosophical implications. This extended review examines several themes from the book in some detail from a Bayesian perspective, and points out one apparently inadvertent error.