Multiverse analysis, abdication of responsibility and manufacturing of doubt

2026/07/16 by Martin Modrák · 4 voices
#stat.ME

paper · pdf

Abstract

I argue that multiverse analysis is highly suited to two undesirable uses: abdication of researcher's responsibility for their conclusion and manufacturing of doubt. A review of multiverse analyses published in 2025 provides tentative empirical support that abdication of responsibility is present in the literature and I mention anecdotal evidence that multiverse has been used for manufacturing of doubt about Covid-19 precautions. To mitigate negative effects if multiverse analysis becomes widely used I suggest the community adopts two conventions for evaluating multiverse analyzes: evaluating multiverses by the single worst universe they contain and considering large size of a multiverse as a sign of weakness rather than a praiseworthy achievement.

Citations

• Robustness is better assessed with a few thoughtful models than with billions of regressions
• Analysis of Potential Biases and Validity of Studies Using Multiverse Approaches to Assess the Impacts of Government Responses to Epidemics

Discussions

• Multiverse analysis, abdication of responsibility and manufacturing of doubt: I have written on some downsides I see with multiverse analysis (which I like in principle): arxiv.org/abs/2607.14623 I wa [bsky, 56 points, 4 comments]
• "Adding one more option to the multiverse is often easier than evaluating which of the choices are actually sensible." "the quality of a multiverse should generally be judged as no higher than the qua [bsky, 24 points, 2 comments]
• Seems about right arxiv.org/pdf/2607.14623 [bsky, 7 points, 0 comments]
• Multiverse analysis, abdication of responsibility and manufacturing of doubt arxiv.org/abs/2607.14623 #stats [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]

Related

• Increasing Transparency Through a Multiverse Analysis
• Holistic Versus Fragmented Multiverses: Empirical Access via Causal and Grounding Signatures
• Beyond Falsifiability: Normal Science in a Multiverse
• The Multiverse Pandemic
• Predictions and Tests of Multiverse Theories