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Discovering patterns of online popularity from time series

2019/04/10 by Ozer, Mert, Sapienza, Anna, Abeliuk, Andrés +2
#FOS: Computer and information sciences #Machine Learning (cs.LG) #Machine Learning (stat.ML) #Social and Information Networks (cs.SI)

paper · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1904.04994

Abstract

How is popularity gained online? Is being successful strictly related to rapidly becoming viral in an online platform or is it possible to acquire popularity in a steady and disciplined fashion? What are other temporal characteristics that can unveil the popularity of online content? To answer these questions, we leverage a multi-faceted temporal analysis of the evolution of popular online contents. Here, we present dipm-SC: a multi-dimensional shape-based time-series clustering algorithm with a heuristic to find the optimal number of clusters. First, we validate the accuracy of our algorithm on synthetic datasets generated from benchmark time series models. Second, we show that dipm-SC can uncover meaningful clusters of popularity behaviors in a real-world Twitter dataset. By clustering the multidimensional time-series of the popularity of contents coupled with other domain-specific dimensions, we uncover two main patterns of popularity: bursty and steady temporal behaviors. Moreover, we find that the way popularity is gained over time has no significant impact on the final cumulative popularity.

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