A nucleation and growth model for COVID-19 epidemic in Japan

2020/08/01 by Yoshihiko Takase, Takase, Yoshihiko · 1 citation
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Mathematics · Medicine · #92-10 #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis #FOS: Biological sciences #FOS: Physical sciences #Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2008.01690

openalex publication_date 2020/08/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

COVID-19 epidemics in Japan and Tokyo were analyzed by a fundamental equation of the dynamic phase transition. As a result, the epidemic was found to be in good agreement with the random nucleation and linear growth model suggesting that the epidemic between March 13, 2020 and May 22, 2020 was simply rate-limited by the three constant-parameters: the initial susceptible, domain growth rate, and nucleation decay constant. This model provides a good predictor of the epidemic because it consists of one equation and the initial specific plot is linear.

Citations

• A SIR model assumption for the spread of COVID-19 in different communities
• The SHIR Model: Realistic Fits to COVID-19 Case Numbers

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