Uncertainties due to imperfect knowledge of systematic effects: general considerations and approximate formulae

2000/02/22 by G. D'Agostini, D'Agostini, G., M. Raso +1
Physics and Astronomy · #Data Analysis #FOS: Physical sciences #High Energy Physics - Experiment (hep-ex) #Statistics and Probability (physics.data-an) #hep-ex #physics.data-an

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.hep-ex/0002056

23 pages, 6 figures. This paper and related work are also available at http://www-zeus.roma1.infn.it/~agostini/prob+stat.html

arxiv created 2000/02/22 · arxiv updated 2009/11/30

Abstract

Starting from considerations about meaning and subsequent use of asymmetric uncertainty intervals of experimental results, we review the issue of uncertainty propagation. We show that, using a probabilistic approach (the so-called Bayesian approach), all sources of uncertainty can be included in a logically consistent way. Practical formulae for the first moments of the probability distribution are derived up to second-order approximations.

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