2016/08/25 by Jessica Godwin, Adrian E. Raftery, Godwin, Jessica +1 · 1 citation
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Health Professions · Social Sciences · #Applications (stat.AP) #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Global Health Care Issues #HIV/AIDS Impact and Responses #Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1608.07330
openalex publication_date 2016/08/25 · openalex created_date 2022/10/03 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
While probabilistic projection methods for projecting life expectancy exist,\nfew account for covariates related to life expectancy. Generalized HIV/AIDS\nepidemics have a large, immediate negative impact on the life expectancy in a\ncountry, but this impact can be mitigated by widespread use of antiretroviral\ntherapy (ART). Thus projection methods for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS\nepidemics could be improved by accounting for HIV prevalence, the future course\nof the epidemic and coverage of ART. We propose a method for making\nprobabilistic projections of life expectancy to 2100 for all countries in the\nworld accounting for HIV prevalence, the future course of the epidemic and its\nuncertainty, and adult ART coverage. We extend the current Bayesian\nprobabilistic life expectancy projection methods of Raftery et al. (2013) to\naccount for HIV prevalence and adult ART coverage. We evaluate our method using\nout-of-sample validation. We find that the proposed method performs better than\nthe method that does not account for HIV prevalence or ART coverage for\nprojections of life expectancy in countries with a generalized epidemic, while\nprojections for countries without an epidemic remain essentially unchanged.\n