2020/07/20 by Fadhlil R. Muhammad, Muhammad, Fadhlil R., Sandro W. Lubis +3
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · #Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph) #Climate variability and models #FOS: Physical sciences #Geophysics and Gravity Measurements #Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2007.10574
openalex publication_date 2020/07/20 · openalex created_date 2022/07/26 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
The influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the precipitation\nextremes in Indonesia during the rainy season (October to April) has been\nevaluated using the daily station rain gauge data and the gridded Asian\nPrecipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Toward Evaluation\nof Water Resources (APHRODITE) from 1987 to 2017 for different phases of the\nMJO. The results show that MJO significantly modulates the frequency of extreme\nprecipitation events in Indonesia, with the magnitude of the impact varying\nacross regions. Specifically, the convectively active (suppressed) MJO\nincreases (decreases) the probability of extreme precipitation events over the\nwestern and central parts of Indonesia by up to 70% (40%). In the eastern part\nof Indonesia, MJO increases (decreases) extreme precipitation probability by up\nto 50% (40%). We attribute the differences in the probability of extreme\nprecipitation events to the changes in the horizontal moisture flux convergence\ninduced by MJO. The results indicate that the MJO provides the source of\npredictability of daily extreme precipitation in Indonesia.\n