An Optimal Precursor of Northeast Pacific Marine Heatwaves and Central Pacific El Niño Events

2022/03/01 by Antonietta Capotondi, A. Capotondi, M. Newman +5 · 66 citations
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · #Climate variability and models #Climatology #Geology #Marine and coastal ecosystems #Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes #Oceanography #Pacific basin #Pacific decadal oscillation #Pacific ocean #Predictability #Sea surface temperature

paper · pdf · doi:10.1029/2021gl097350

published in Geophysical Research Letters 49(5) (American Geophysical Union)

openalex publication_date 2022/03/01 · openalex created_date 2022/04/03 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/03

Abstract

Abstract The intensity of Northeast Pacific marine heatwaves (MHWs) has been related to local stochastic atmospheric forcing with limited predictability, but their evolution and persistence may be controlled by large‐scale climate influences. A Linear Inverse Model containing both sea surface temperature and sea surface height (SSH) anomalies is used to identify the “optimal” conditions for observed Northeast Pacific MHW events that developed two‐to‐four seasons later. These optimal initial conditions include SSH anomalies that are responsible for most of the MHW growth, suggesting the relevance of subsurface ocean dynamics. Moreover, Northeast Pacific MHW growth occurs as part of a basin‐scale dynamical mode that links the North Pacific to central equatorial Pacific El Niño events, whose subsequent development may lengthen MHW duration.

Citations

• Understanding ENSO Diversity
• Frequency of marine heatwaves in the North Atlantic and North Pacific since 1950
• The Continuum of Northeast Pacific Marine Heatwaves and Their Relationship to the Tropical Pacific

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• The Continuum of Northeast Pacific Marine Heatwaves and Their Relationship to the Tropical Pacific
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• Global Marine Heatwaves Under Different Flavors of ENSO
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