A model for the outbreak of COVID-19: Vaccine effectiveness in a case study of Italy

2020/07/24 by Bitsouni, Vasiliki, Gialelis, Nikolaos, Stratis, Ioannis G.
#Dynamical Systems (math.DS) #FOS: Biological sciences #FOS: Mathematics #FOS: Physical sciences #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)

paper · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2008.00828

Abstract

We present a compartmental mathematical model with demography for the spread of the COVID-19 disease, considering also asymptomatic infectious individuals. We compute the basic reproductive ratio of the model and study the local and global stability for it. We solve the model numerically based on the case of Italy. We propose a vaccination model and we derive threshold conditions for preventing infection spread in the case of imperfect vaccines.

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