2010/01/25 by Loet Leydesdorff, Leydesdorff, Loet, Peter van den Besselaar +1
Business, Management and Accounting · Decision Sciences · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #Business Strategy and Innovation #Complex Systems and Decision Making #Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis #Economic and Technological Innovation #FOS: Physical sciences #Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1001.4430
openalex publication_date 2010/01/25 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
Arthur's (1988) model for competing technologies is discussed from the\nperspective of evolution theory. Using Arthur's own model for the simulation,\nwe show that 'lock-ins' can be suppressed by adding reflexivity or uncertainty\non the side of consumers. Competing technologies then tend to remain in\ncompetition. From an evolutionary perspective, lock-ins and prevailing\nequilibrium can be considered as different trajectories of the techno-economic\nsystems under study. Our simulation results suggest that technological\ndevelopments which affect the natural preferences of consumers do not induce\nchanges in trajectory, while changes in network parameters of a technology\nsometimes induce ordered substitution processes. These substitution processes\nhave been shown empirically (e.g., Fisher & Prey, 1971), but hitherto they have\nbeen insufficiently understood from the perspective of evolutionary modelling.\nImplications for technology policies are discussed.\n