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Sequential Test for the Lowest Mean: From Thompson to Murphy Sampling

2018/06/04 by Emilie Kaufmann, Kaufmann, Emilie, Wouter M. Koolen +3 · 2 citations
Computer Science · Decision Sciences · #Advanced Bandit Algorithms Research #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Machine Learning (cs.LG) #Machine Learning (stat.ML) #Machine Learning and Algorithms #Reinforcement Learning in Robotics

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1806.00973

openalex publication_date 2018/06/04 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/01

Abstract

Learning the minimum/maximum mean among a finite set of distributions is a fundamental sub-task in planning, game tree search and reinforcement learning. We formalize this learning task as the problem of sequentially testing how the minimum mean among a finite set of distributions compares to a given threshold. We develop refined non-asymptotic lower bounds, which show that optimality mandates very different sampling behavior for a low vs high true minimum. We show that Thompson Sampling and the intuitive Lower Confidence Bounds policy each nail only one of these cases. We develop a novel approach that we call Murphy Sampling. Even though it entertains exclusively low true minima, we prove that MS is optimal for both possibilities. We then design advanced self-normalized deviation inequalities, fueling more aggressive stopping rules. We complement our theoretical guarantees by experiments showing that MS works best in practice.

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