A Simple Probabilistic Model for Uncertainty Estimation

2018/07/24 by Alexander Kuvaev, Kuvaev, Alexander, Roman Khudorozhkov +1
Computer Science · Mathematics · #Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (cs.CV) #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Machine Learning (cs.LG) #Machine Learning (stat.ML) #cs.CV #cs.LG #stat.ML

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1807.09312

arxiv created 2018/07/24 · arxiv updated 2018/08/08

Abstract

The article focuses on determining the predictive uncertainty of a model on the example of atrial fibrillation detection problem by a single-lead ECG signal. To this end, the model predicts parameters of the beta distribution over class probabilities instead of these probabilities themselves. It was shown that the described approach allows to detect atypical recordings and significantly improve the quality of the algorithm on confident predictions.

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