2019/09/13 by Yuqing Wang, Wang, Yuqing, Yan Ru Pei +1
Decision Sciences · Engineering · Social Sciences · #Crime Patterns and Interventions #Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics #FOS: Economics and business #General Economics (econ.GN) #Traffic and Road Safety
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1909.06509
openalex publication_date 2019/09/13 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
We develop a general model for finding the optimal penal strategy based on\nthe behavioral traits of the offenders. We focus on how the discount rate\n(level of time discounting) affects criminal propensity on the individual\nlevel, and how the aggregation of these effects influences criminal activities\non the population level. The effects are aggregated based on the distribution\nof discount rate among the population. We study this distribution empirically\nthrough a survey with 207 participants, and we show that it follows\nzero-inflated exponential distribution. We quantify the effectiveness of the\npenal strategy as its net utility for the population, and show how this\nquantity can be maximized. When we apply the maximization procedure on the\noffense of impaired driving (DWI), we discover that the effectiveness of DWI\ndeterrence depends critically on the amount of fine and prison condition.\n