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Welfare state evaluations, normative expectations, and political trust: longitudinal evidence from Germany and Norway

2024/01/08 by Staffan Kumlin, Miroslav Nemčok, Arno Van Hootegem · 2 voices · 15 citations
Mathematics · Psychology · Social Sciences · #Electoral Systems and Political Participation #Expectancy theory #Ideology #Law #Mathematics #Normative #Political science #Politics #Psychology #Public Policy and Administration Research #Social Capital and Networks #Social psychology #State (computer science) #Welfare #Welfare state

paper · pdf · doi:10.1080/14719037.2023.2297292

published in Public Management Review, 1-24 (Taylor & Francis)

openalex publication_date 2024/01/08 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/01

Abstract

The expectancy-disconfirmation model (EDM) explains satisfaction with public services as a combination of service expectations and perceived performance. We study how satisfaction in turn affects political trust. We mimic the EDM logic by assessing interactions with political-ideological ‘normative expectations’. Three-wave panel surveys from Germany and Norway contain general and specific measures of satisfaction. Multilevel models show robust between-, and multiple instances of within-individual, associations between satisfaction and trust. Interactions with normative expectations are mostly absent, however. Overall, the variables highlighted by the EDM seem to affect generalized political trust. But the expectancy-disconfirmation logic may not repeat itself at this general political level.

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