The Study of Critical Junctures: Theory, Narrative, and Counterfactuals in Historical Institutionalism

2007/04/01 by Giovanni Capoccia, R. Daniel Kelemen · 2,322 citations
Business, Management and Accounting · Social Sciences · #Contingency #Counterfactual conditional #Counterfactual thinking #Economics #Epistemology #Historical institutionalism #Institutionalism #Law #Linguistics #Narrative #Neoclassical economics #Path dependence #Philosophy #Political Influence and Corporate Strategies #Political science #Politics #Politics and Society in Latin America #Positive economics #Social Policy and Reform Studies #Sociology

paper · doi:10.1017/s0043887100020852

published in World Politics 59(3), 341-369 (Cambridge University Press)

openalex publication_date 2007/04/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/06

Abstract

The causal logic behind many arguments in historical institutionalism emphasizes the enduring impact of choices made during critical junctures in history. These choices close off alternative options and lead to the establishment of institutions that generate self-reinforcing path-dependent processes. Despite the theoretical and practical importance of critical junctures, however, analyses of path dependence often devote little attention to them. The article reconstructs the concept of critical junctures, delimits its range of application, and provides methodological guidance for its use in historical institutional analyses. Contingency is the key characteristic of critical junctures, and counterfactual reasoning and narrative methods are necessary to analyze contingent factors and their impact. Finally, the authors address specific issues relevant to both cross-sectional and longitudinal comparisons of critical junctures.

Citations

• Policy Paradigms, Social Learning, and the State: The Case of Economic Policymaking in Britain
• Political Science and the Three New Institutionalisms
• Counterfactuals and Hypothesis Testing in Political Science
• Culture in Action: Symbols and Strategies
• Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events
• Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics

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