A storyline attribution of the 2011/2012 drought in Southeastern South America

2022/03/24 by Linda van Garderen, Julia Mindlin · 6 citations
Environmental Science · #Hydrology and Drought Analysis #Climate variability and models #Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies

paper · pdf · doi:10.1002/wea.4185

Abstract

The 2011/2012 summer drought in Southeastern South America (SESA) was a short but devastating event. What would this event have looked like under pre-industrial conditions, or in a +2 degC world? We find that climate change causes the region to be at a higher risk of drought. However, we found no large-scale changes in the half-month water budgets. We show that the climate change induced positive precipitation trend in the region outweighs the increased temperatures and potential evapotranspiration during the 2011/2012 drought.

Cited by

• The need for multi‐method extreme event attribution
• How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather
• How climate change intensified storm Boris’ extreme rainfall, revealed by near-real-time storylines
• Storylines reveal contrasting thermodynamic effects of climate change on 2020/21 East Asian cold extremes
• Global Kilometer‐Scale Climate Storylines Using Spectral Nudging
• Global shifts in rainfall drought relationship: weakening association in tropics

Related

• Interplay between climate change and climate variability: the 2022 drought in Central South America
• World drought frequency, duration, and severity for 1951-2010
• Drought in the Southeastern United States: Causes, Variability over the Last Millennium, and the Potential for Future Hydroclimate Change*
• The Magnitude and Causes of Global Drought Changes in the Twenty-First Century under a Low–Moderate Emissions Scenario
• Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought