Why probability probably doesn’t exist (but it is useful to act like it does)

2024/12/16 by David Spiegelhalter · 2 voices · 2 citations
Mathematics · Medicine · #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #Computer science #Econometrics #Mathematical economics #Mathematics #Probability and statistics #Probability distribution #SARS-CoV-2 detection and testing #Statistics

paper · doi:10.1038/d41586-024-04096-5

openalex created_date 2024/12/16 · openalex publication_date 2024/12/16 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/25

Cited by

• Rethinking how randomness is taught in K-12 statistics subjects
• It’s all in your head—naturalness arguments do not require aleatoric uncertainty

Discussions

• It’s like “randomness.” People believe it is some object that exists “out there”, like the Moon or the Himalaya, or in some Platonic realm. But there is nothing random in the world, no more and no les [bsky, 2 points, 0 comments]
• Why probability probably doesn’t exist (but it is useful to act like it does) doi.org/10.1038/d415... [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]