Global warming in the pipeline
2022/12/08 by James E. Hansen, Makiko Sato, Hansen, James E. +31 · 13 voices · 11 citations
#physics.ao-ph
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2212.04474
Abstract
Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change implies that fast-feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is 1.2 +/- 0.3°C (2σ) per W/m2. Consistent analysis of temperature over the full Cenozoic era -- including "slow" feedbacks by ice sheets and trace gases -- supports this ECS and implies that CO2 was about 300 ppm in the Pliocene and 400 ppm at transition to a nearly ice-free planet, thus exposing unrealistic lethargy of ice sheet models. Equilibrium global warming including slow feedbacks for today's human-made greenhouse gas (GHG) climate forcing (4.1 W/m2) is 10°C, reduced to 8°C by today's aerosols. Decline of aerosol emissions since 2010 should increase the 1970-2010 global warming rate of 0.18°C per decade to a post-2010 rate of at least 0.27°C per decade. Under the current geopolitical approach to GHG emissions, global warming will likely pierce the 1.5°C ceiling in the 2020s and 2°C before 2050. Impacts on people and nature will accelerate as global warming pumps up hydrologic extremes. The enormity of consequences demands a return to Holocene-level global temperature. Required actions include: 1) a global increasing price on GHG emissions, 2) East-West cooperation in a way that accommodates developing world needs, and 3) intervention with Earth's radiation imbalance to phase down today's massive human-made "geo-transformation" of Earth's climate. These changes will not happen with the current geopolitical approach, but current political crises present an opportunity for reset, especially if young people can grasp their situation.
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Discussions
- Some didn't like us publishing the 'Global warming in the pipeline' preprint (@drjamesehansen.bsky.social et al. 2022) on @arxiv.bsky.social. It was strange to see how many who didn't provided feedbac [bsky, 21 points, 0 comments]
- gruseliger preprint dazu: arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474 [bsky, 7 points, 2 comments]
- Global Warming in the Pipeline [hn, 4 points, 0 comments]
- Global Warming In the Pipeline [hn, 3 points, 1 comments]
- Global Warming in the Pipeline (Hansen et at., 2023) [hn, 1 points, 0 comments]
- I think '10°C in the pipeline' accurately represents figures [bsky, 1 points, 0 comments]
- #Hansen.220.9 James Hansen et al, submitted for review
This is 100s to 1000s yrs away. Includes ignored slow feedbacks - ice sheets loss, large source amplifying feedbacks, that now apply
arxiv.org/a [bsky, 0 points, 1 comments]
- Dr. James Hansen, the world's pre-eminent climate scientist, in his recent paper, arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474 , the total eventual equilibrium warming (required by physics) after fast and slow feedbacks [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- As Hansen et al. show, current atmospheric GHG levels will result in a 8/10C warming once slow feedbacks are accounted for, with up to 4C warming this century. Cutting CO2 now won't make a difference. [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- It is based on the understanding of the paper by Hansen et al re warming in the pipeline. arxiv.org/pdf/2212.04474 [bsky, 0 points, 1 comments]
- In a paper to be published, James Hansen and a dozen scientists suggest that the global thermometer could rise not by 3°C, on average, but... by 10°C. 😳
arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474 [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- arxiv.org/abs/2212.044... [bsky, 0 points, 1 comments]
- Alarming Arxiv paper by Hansen says aerosols matter more than we knew, and since 1970 we are warming faster than expected. #GHG #Sustainability https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474 [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
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